Changelog

Content Addition

Added Section 7: "The Workforce Problem" to Part II (The Reality). New section examines the nuclear workforce supply constraint that complements the fuel supply analysis. Key points: 68,000 workers industry-wide, site-specific NRC licensing requirements, 3-5 year training pipeline, twelve reactor closures dispersed experienced operators (2012-2021), existing workforce calibrated for maintenance not expansion.

Structure Changes

• Total sections increased from 13 to 14
• Reading time updated from ~45 to ~50 minutes
• Former sections 7-13 renumbered to 8-14
• All cross-references updated across files

New Sources

• DOE: 3 Workforce Trends in Nuclear Energy in 2025
• DOE U.S. Energy & Employment Report
• NRC: Backgrounder on Reactor Operator Licensing
• BLS: Nuclear Engineers Occupational Outlook
• GAO: NRC Needs Additional Actions to Prepare to License Advanced Reactors
• CRS: U.S. Nuclear Plant Shutdowns, State Interventions, and Policy Concerns

Thesis Launched

Waiting for Watts published as companion to Follow the Watts. Bear thesis on three SMR companies: OKLO, SMR (NuScale), NNE (Nano Nuclear). Core argument: valid demand thesis does not validate current valuations. Regulatory, technological, and commercial execution gaps create structural asymmetry favoring the bear case. No positions held.

Market Data Snapshot

• OKLO: ~$106/share, ~$17B market cap, zero revenue
• SMR: ~$24/share, ~$6B market cap, $37M TTM revenue, going concern language
• NNE: ~$32/share, ~$1.6B market cap, zero revenue, ~60 employees

Key Data Points

• Oklo insider selling: hundreds of millions sold vs ~$250K purchased
• Oklo CEO DeWitte + COO Cochran sales: ~$260M combined since Dec 2024
• NuScale Q3 2025 EPS: $(1.85) vs $(0.13) expected (1,323% miss)
• NuScale share authorization doubled: 332M → 662M shares
• NRC SMR approvals to date: 1 (NuScale VOYGR, January 2023)

Future Update Triggers

The thesis will be updated when material events occur:

• NRC licensing decisions (approvals, denials, significant RAIs)
• Binding customer contracts (not letters of intent)
• Material insider transactions
• Going concern status changes
• Commercial milestones (construction starts, power generation)