January 6, 2026
Initial Publication
Thesis Launched
Waiting for Watts published as companion to Follow the Watts. Bear thesis on three SMR companies: OKLO, SMR (NuScale), NNE (Nano Nuclear). Core argument: valid demand thesis does not validate current valuations. Regulatory, technological, and commercial execution gaps create structural asymmetry favoring the bear case. No positions held.
Market Data Snapshot
- OKLO: ~$95/share, ~$15B market cap, zero revenue
- SMR: ~$19/share, ~$6B market cap, $37M TTM revenue, going concern language
- NNE: ~$31/share, ~$1.5B market cap, zero revenue, ~60 employees
Key Data Points
- OKLO insider selling: $440M sold vs $247K purchased (1,782:1 ratio)
- OKLO CEO DeWitte + COO Cochran sales: $285M combined since Dec 2024
- NuScale Q3 2025 EPS: $(1.85) vs $(0.13) expected (1,323% miss)
- NuScale share authorization doubled: 332M → 662M shares
- NRC SMR approvals to date: 1 (NuScale VOYGR, January 2023)
Future Update Triggers
The thesis will be updated when material events occur:
- NRC licensing decisions (approvals, denials, significant RAIs)
- Binding customer contracts (not letters of intent)
- Material insider transactions
- Going concern status changes
- Commercial milestones (construction starts, power generation)