I
Waiting for Watts
The SMR Bear Thesis
The Thesis in 60 Seconds
AI infrastructure requires power. The demand is real. But the market has conflated the thesis with the execution. OKLO trades at $15 billion on zero revenue. NuScale has going concern language in its proxy. Nano Nuclear hasn't submitted an NRC application. Insiders are selling at 181:1 ratios. The NRC has approved exactly one SMR design in history, after a 7-year review. No SMR has generated commercial electricity in the United States. The stocks are priced for certainty in an industry defined by uncertainty. Either the regulatory, technological, and commercial challenges don't matter, or the market is mispricing the gap between narrative and reality. This thesis argues it's the latter.
01
The demand thesis is valid. The execution thesis is broken.
AI needs power. Nuclear makes theoretical sense. The hyperscalers are signing deals. None of this means these specific companies, at these specific prices, will capture the opportunity. Valid thesis and executable position are not the same thing.
02
The market is pricing narrative, not fundamentals.
Zero revenue companies trade at $15 billion. Companies with going concern warnings trade at $6 billion. The stocks have no earnings anchor, no quarterly forcing function. They float on hope with no mechanism for disappointment until the future arrives.
03
The asymmetry favors the bear case.
Insiders are selling. Regulatory timelines are measured in years. Nuclear construction has never come in on budget. The bull case requires everything to go right. The bear case requires only that reality intrude.
Contents
5 Parts · 12 Sections · ~45 min read
II
The Reality
III
The Mispricing
IV
The Companies
V
What Breaks It
About This Thesis
What this is
A bear thesis arguing that three SMR companies are structurally overvalued based on the gap between their stock prices and their execution status: OKLO, SMR (NuScale), and NNE (Nano Nuclear). I hold no short position. The market can stay irrational longer than any thesis can stay solvent. This is analysis, not a trade.
What this isn't
Financial advice. A prediction that nuclear power will fail. A claim that AI doesn't need power. The demand thesis is valid. The companies might eventually succeed. But "might eventually succeed" is not the same as "worth $15 billion today." I could be wrong. Position accordingly.
How to use it
As one input among many. The thesis steelmans the bull case before explaining why I think it fails. Every figure cites SEC filings, NRC documents, or official press releases. Verify the sources. Read the bull cases as if you're trying to talk yourself into the trade. Consider what I might be missing.
Updates
Material changes to NRC status, insider transactions, or thesis-relevant developments will be reflected in updates. The current version reflects information available through January 2026.
All figures sourced to SEC filings, NRC documents, and official releases.
The demand is real. The execution isn't. The asymmetry is structural.
Begin with Section 1 →